North American Construction (NOA) sank 17% on its Q3 results, which beat on revenue…

… but missed big on profit, with losses in its Fargo JV and margin compression in Australia forcing management to cut the full-year EBITDA guide by ~$15M (midpoint).

Australia showed up in the backlog too, with a big project not materializing and driving the sequential decline - but with an $8B bid pipeline…

… the company has plenty of opportunity to right-size the business, with a 15-20% margin target for 2027 supporting leverage reduction…

… and potential multiple expansion if they can execute, with NOA’s current valuation sitting below the long-term average.

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