Generally a muted response from markets on Carney’s win, given he’s been the favourite for some time now and a minority government means less ability to move freely. As was expected, oil E&P names sold off despite modest gains in most of the TSX, which could just as easily be linked to U.S. market performance. We’re keeping an eye on how positioning shifts post-election and will be back with anything interesting.

• Carney’s Liberals take the race, what comes next?

• Which companies could benefit from a minority government?

• U.S. goes after insider trading in congress with the PELOSI act

• Auto stocks get a lift on tariff relief optimism

• Earnings is in full swing, with a huge slate of names reporting today

• GDP data for Canada and the U.S. is coming this morning

Carney’s in, Poilievre’s out, Alberta next?

Well there you have it folks, Carney will take the helm with the liberals winning a minority government on strong voter turnout. Notable drops in support for the NDP and PPC versus last election highlight how much of a two party race this really was.

It’s clear that priorities one and two will be reaching a resolution with the U.S. on trade and improving affordability across the board. The former is likely needed for progress on the latter to be made.

Beyond that, interprovincial relations will be key - particularly with Alberta, which has been amping up its separatist rhetoric post-election.

Similar to a new head coach joining a losing team, the first few months are going to be key for Carney. With a lot of doubt and negativity in the metaphorical locker room (for good reason), it’s his job to win respect early and get everyone rallied around the bigger picture. It’s our job to give him the chance to make that happen.

Who could benefit from a minority government?

While the liberals didn’t win an outright majority, linking arms with the NDP or BQ will give them the numbers to pass new legislation - concessions may be needed to make that happen.

Such concessions could create an interesting tailwind for companies sitting at the intersection of each party’s desires. Like some kind of weird political love triangle… we break it down in the full piece below - check it out!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/104

The U.S. has put forward a proposal to ban congressional stock trading… and they named it the PELOSI Act… brilliant.

For those unaware, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is a bit of a legend in markets, with a >$250M net worth and a track record of impeccable timing on options purchases ahead of major news.

Gotta give it to the administration, they know how to play the social media game.

For YTD insider activity, go here: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/94

• Trump plans to ease tariffs on US auto imports

• ALTÉRRA, Brookfield Invest $100M in India’s Evren to Expand Energy Pipeline

• Tantalus Releases its Third Annual Utility of the Future Survey

• Spending Promises May Compound Canada’s Fiscal Challenges

Kraken (PNG) has been strong recently, with a few brokers picking up coverage and strong earnings earlier in the week, where service revenue was up 14% Y/Y and adj. EBITDA was up 23% to $7M. PNG expects $120M–135M in revenue this year (40% growth at midpoint) with a $2B sales pipeline, which should have further support from Carney’s defense spending plan.

Martinrea (MRE) got a nice 4% lift today, likely related to Trump easing up on the stacking of tariffs in the automotive sector.

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS

Gildan (GIL) reported in-line results with some strength on the bottom-line. Net sales grew 2.3% Y/Y, with strong Activewear performance offsetting declines in Hosiery and Underwear. Full year guidance was maintained, factoring in tariffs and ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

First National (FN) reported mixed results with MUA increasing 7% and mortgage origination growth of 27% across both single-family and commercial portfolios. Earnings were negatively impacted by lower mortgage servicing revenue and falling overnight interest rates. EPS came in at $0.39 versus estimates of $0.77 (down from $0.82 in Q1’24).

TODAY’S EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES