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• Retail says go, institutional says slow down

• CPI beats, energy costs drive divergence

• Strathcona chums the waters with ~$6B takeout bid

• Canada Post set to strike again, some companies could be impacted

• Westshore rips on analyst upgrade

Retail says go, institutional says slow down

There’s been some great charts out of the U.S. brokers recently highlighting retail involvement in markets, which eclipsed 30% multiple times in April as DIY investors stepped into market drawdowns aggressively.

This week has been no different, with retail stepping into Monday’s U.S. credit downgrade dip to the tune of $5B, and adding a record $4B in the first three hours of trading yesterday morning.

We’re watching how this develops in conjunction with institutional positioning, which appears to be in stark contrast to retail allocations.

With valuations still elevated, let’s see which group gives first - will institutional capital chase or will retail capital capitulate?

CPI beats, energy costs drive divergence

We got CPI for April yesterday which came in at 1.7%, edging out estimates of 1.6% but down 0.6% M/M. Core trimmed-CPI continued to climb though, hitting 3.1% versus 2.9% in March.

The M/M decline was largely driven by lower transportation costs, which more than offset continued food inflation post-tax holiday…

… and was driven by lower fuel costs, owing to the removal of the carbon tax and falling oil prices.

For a breakdown of the most important categories (food, shelter, transportation), check out the full bite: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/123

Strathcona chums the waters with takeout bid

Upon further review, the series of transactions that led to Strathcona’s $5.9B hostile takeover bid for MEG Energy might just be the best we’ve seen this year, and I’m starting to think Adam Waterous (Exec Chair) is a genius.

In the full piece, we break down the strategic rationale of each transaction - and why SCR should benefit regardless of outcome. Check it out!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/124

With last year’s labour disputes still unresolved, it looks like Canada Post is heading for another strike starting this Friday.

If the 32-day strike in 2024 is an indication of what’s coming, here’s a few names that could be impacted:

Some common themes here… negative impacts would likely be felt by companies that benefit from print/direct mail marketing, or proximity to post office locations.

Flagging the Cenovus (CVE) buy here, whose name is in the hat for the potential to submit a competing bid for MEG Energy.

• Brookfield & Lunate set up $1bn real estate JV in Middle East

• Galaxy Digital pops on Nasdaq debut

• Telesat Said to Seek Bids for Up to $1 Billion to Build Stations

Westshore Terminals (WTE) was upgraded by RBC, who believes the Alberta regulator’s approval of the Grassy Mountain coal project isn’t priced in, and that there’s a margin of safety if it doesn’t ultimately go through as well as other catalysts, like the company’s potash handling facility in BC that’s expected to come online next year.

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