Trump’s 50% steel tariffs are having their intended impact, shutting Canadian producers out of the market and forcing Carney to tighten the screws on previously announced measures to curb anti-competitive dumping.

The new measures will cap non-U.S. countries with/without free trade agreements to 100%/50% of 2024 import volumes before hitting them with a 50% tariff. Taking import volumes from countries without trade deals (highlighted in red)…

… and assuming 50% of RoW volumes lack one too, this move should effectively take ~1.5M tonnes of cheap steel out of the market (nearly 20% of imports). Let’s see if that’s enough.