Trump ups Canada tariffs to 35%, job vacancies hit 8-year low
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WHAT'S ON TAP
Trump ups Canada tariffs to 35%
GDP contracts for 2nd month straight
Job vacancies hit 8-year low
GFL jumps 6% on a beat and raise
Copper slides 20% on lighter tariff
HOT OFF THE PRESS
Trump ups broad-based tariffs to 35%
Alongside a set of additional tariffs imposed on countries the U.S. hasnβt yet struck a deal with, Canadaβs blanket 25% tariff has been reset to 35% - further pressuring an already strained trade relationship.
Thankfully, the new measures still exclude USMCA-compliant goods. The trade agreement is the reason the tariff-fallout hasnβt been worse, and is an area Trump will keep applying pressure leading up to the 2026 review.
GDP contracts for second month straight
GDP fell 0.1% in May, in-line with analyst expectations for a second straight monthly contraction driven by weakness in goods-producing industries.
The slowdown was felt most in resource extraction, public administration, and retail trade - as refinery maintenance, a post-election air pocket, and auto tariffs all put pressure on results for the month.
The print wasnβt all bad though, with inventory buildsΒ supporting a manufacturing reboundβ¦
β¦ home resale activity driving the second straight gain in real estateβ¦
β¦ and a broad-based recovery in transportation. Combined with an expected uptick in retail sales, early estimates for June call for a 0.1% rebound in GDP.
Job vacancies hit 8-year low
Payroll employment increased for a second straight month in May, gaining 0.1% thanks to adds in health care and retail trade, partly offset by continued weakness in manufacturing - where employment has declined 1.2% since December.
The real story in this release was job vacancies though, which fell another ~4% after Aprilβs ~3% decline and sit nearly 16% lower than they were a year ago.
At ~480K, vacancies are at their lowest level in almost eight years while unemployment remains elevated, posing challenges for any near-term recovery in the labour market.
FUNNY BUSINESS
Earnings season is starting to ramp upβ¦
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
| Insider | Company | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Murray Bye | Surge (SGY) | $335K |
| Sandra Sanderson | Empire (EMP-A) | $133K |
| Pippa Morgan | Aritzia (ATZ) | $142K |
ON OUR RADAR
GAINERS & LOSERS
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GFL Environmental (GFL) was up 6% on earnings, which beat estimates on both revenue and profit thanks to pricing-led margin expansion and volume growth.
The strong print prompted management to take its full-year guide higher, adding $110M and $50M to the revenue and EBITDA outlook, respectively. With net leverage sitting at 3.2xβ¦
β¦ the always aggressive Patrick Dovigi has room for continued buybacks (3.5M shares in Q2) and M&A, which could be further fuelled by a partial sale of its infrastructure unit.
Weβre looking to conclude that process over the next 2 to 3 weeks. I think weβre on the 5-yard line, weβre down to 2 final biddersβ¦
EARNINGS
YESTERDAYβS EARNINGS
| Company | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| π¨π¦ Bombardier (BBD) | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| π¨π¦ Lightspeed (LSPD) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| π¨π¦ TC Energy (TRP) | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| π¨π¦ Gildan (GIL) | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| π¨π¦ Canada Goose (GOOS) | -0.91 | -0.87 |
| π¨π¦ Brookfield Infra (BIP) | -0.03 | 0.31 |
| π¨π¦ Spin Master (TOY) | -0.07 | 0.06 |
| π¨π¦ Real Matters (REAL) | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| π¨π¦ Polaris (PIF) | 15.4M | 15.2M |
| π¨π¦ Kiwetinohk (KEC) | 1.39 | 0.44 |
| π¨π¦ Colliers (CIGI) | 1.72 | 1.48 |
| π¨π¦ Cenovus (CVE) | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| π¨π¦ ATCO (ACO-X) | 0.90 | 0.89 |
| π¨π¦ Coveo (CVO) | -1.9M | -1.3M |
| π¨π¦ Capstone (CS) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| π¨π¦ Growth Int. (AFN) | 54.2M | 52.9M |
| π¨π¦ TMX Group (X) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| π¨π¦ MEG Energy (MEG) | 0.26 | 0.05 |
| π¨π¦ Fairfax (FFH) | 1.13B | 1.05B |
| π¨π¦ NFI Group (NFI) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| π¨π¦ Aecon (ARE) | -0.09 | 0.04 |
| π¨π¦ Dundee (DPM) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| π¨π¦ ARC Resources (ARC) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| π¨π¦ Baytex (BTE) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| π¨π¦ Definity (DFY) | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| π¨π¦ Eldorado (ELD) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| π¨π¦ Ero Copper (ERO) | 0.64 | 0.46 |
TODAYβS EARNINGS
| Company | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| π¨π¦ Magna (MG) | AM | 1.15 |
| π¨π¦ Fortis (FTS) | AM | 0.70 |
| π¨π¦ Brookfield Ren. (BEP) | AM | -0.48 |
| π¨π¦ Enbridge (ENB) | AM | 0.57 |
| π¨π¦ Telus Int. (TIXT) | AM | 0.06 |
| π¨π¦ Imperial Oil (IMO) | AM | 1.61 |
| π¨π¦ AltaGas (ALA) | AM | 0.23 |
| π¨π¦ TransAlta (TA) | AM | 0.11 |
| π¨π¦ Telus (T) | AM | 0.24 |
| π¨π¦ Topicus (TOI) | PM | 0.46 |
ECONOMIC DATA
YESTERDAYβS ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| π¨π¦ GDP M/M | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| πΊπΈ Chicago PMI | 47.1 | 42.0 |
| πΊπΈ Jobless Claims | 218K | 224K |
| πΊπΈ Continuing Claims | 1,946K | 1,960K |
| πΊπΈ Personal Income M/M | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| πΊπΈ Personal Spending M/M | 0.3% | 0.4% |
TODAYβS ECONOMIC RELEASES
| Release | Time | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| π¨π¦ S&P Mftg. PMI | 9:30AM | - |
| πΊπΈ Non Farm Payrolls | 8:30AM | 110K |
| πΊπΈ Unemployment Rate | 8:30AM | 4.2% |
| πΊπΈ ISM Mftg. PMI | 10:00AM | 49.5 |
| πΊπΈ Consumer Sentiment | 10:00AM | 62 |
COMMODITIES
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Copper has shed over 20% in the past two days, following a dialled back version of Trumpβs original 50% tariff on the red metal that largely spares Canadian exports.
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