• Trade war remains heated, crushing U.S. travel demand from Canadians

• The 25% auto tariffs could have a big impact to some companies, may help others

• Campaign promises keep on coming

• Data center trade remains under pressure with another TD Cowen update

• Gold stocks keep chasing the yellow metal higher

• Telesat is catching a bid today for the business tomorrow

Here’s what’s happening:

• 25% auto tariffs were signed by Trump to be implemented by April 3^rd (see below for more details)

• In Carney’s words: Canada’s old relationship with the U.S. is over. Those are fighting words, so we expect we’ll hear more on retaliation to the tariffs in the near future.

• The dispute is crushing travel: Recent data shows forward bookings for flights from Canada to the U.S. are down >70% Y/Y.

Our framework for navigating the trade war: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/51

Auto tariffs aren’t all they’re cracked up to be

The 25% headline brings sticker shock, but the reality is much different.

With a high percentage of U.S. content in vehicles made in Canada, delays in implementation keeping the door open for negotiation, and the potential for outright exemptions seemingly still on the table, the impact of the auto tariffs is less severe than the headlines would have you believe.

That said, the potential damage to auto manufacturers and companies upstream from them remains serious, as we explore in the full piece.

If the above link won’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/72

Campaigns turn towards domestic investment

Carney pledged to create a $2B strategic response fund to support Canada’s auto sector, while bringing more of the automotive value chain in-country to reduce vulnerability to future trade disputes.

Again, light on actual implementation/funding details, but we can all agree that years of underinvestment has really hurt productivity (as our economic dashboard shows), and it needs to change.

Poilievre made a promise of his own, proposing a $5K per year bump to TFSA contribution room specifically for investments in Canadian companies - the first “invest in Canada” incentive of its kind.

Similar to Carney’s proposal above though, we’re not sure how effective the move would be, given that only 1.5M Canadians have maxed out their accounts.

Assuming these individuals used up the additional room, that would be a ~$7.5B annual boost to Canadian market flows. It’s a start, but we’ll need a lot more where that came from to bring both liquidity and international interest back to our market.

Data center trade: the cloud remains a dark one

We previously highlighted the knockout blow to the data center trade was a viral TD Cowen note indicating Microsoft had cancelled or deferred 200 MW of data center projects.

Cowen came back Wednesday with another market moving note that now estimates 10x the February figure, or 2 GW of Microsoft data center projects cancelled or deferred in the U.S. and Europe.

The rational mind would point out Microsoft hasn’t budged on deploying $80B this year. But these aren’t rational markets, nor were they on the way up, so patience may be needed as the data center trade remains under pressure.

• BMO changes some mortgage rules for steel, aluminum business owners due to trade war

• Luxury home-buying shifts in most major Canadian markets after strong start to 2025

• As Line 5 tunnel set to be fast-tracked, Great Lakes tribes withdraw from cooperating on environmental review

The miners are running again as gold prices continue their march higher. Should commodity prices stay put the miners continue to have upside, as we highlighted in a previous bite.

Magna (MG) and Bombardier (BBD-B) sold off on concerns of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and well, everyone, though China is likely in focus.

Air Canada (AC) traded lower today too - our guess is the brutal forward booking numbers shown in the trade war monitor is the culprit, given AC’s exposure to Canada-U.S. routes.

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS

Telesat (TSAT) beat Q4 results, with revenue of $128M ($122M est) and adj. EBITDA of $73M ($56M est). Y/Y results have been ugly, with revenue down 19% and 2025 guidance of $405-425M suggesting further declines.

Despite that, the stock is still up 23% YTD and 120% over the last year, why? We highlighted in our coverage of the space industry that TSAT was transitioning its geostationary (GEO) satellite portfolio to low earth orbit (LEO), with a ~200-satellite constellation (manufactured by MDA Space) to be launched in 2026.

Lassonde Industries (LAS-A) delivered strong results, with Q4 sales reaching $738M, up 22% Y/Y. Excluding foreign exchange impact and acquisitions, organic sales grew 11%. The company is progressing plans for a new facility in New Jersey to support U.S. growth and is working on some cost reduction initiatives as well.

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES