• American “Liberation Day”: what to expect

• Carney’s 500K/yr housing plan: which companies are in play?

• Canadian oil back in the spotlight with the election & geopolitics

• Rogers falls 6% after inking a 12-year, $11B deal with the NHL

• Canadian politician competes with Trump for most insane tweet

Today’s the day, “Liberation Day” as Trump calls it, where he’ll unveil a broad-based plan for tariffs at 4PM EDT - here’s what the market is expecting:

• 20% tariffs on most imports to the U.S., though final details remain unclear

• Retaliation from impacted countries, with Canada and the EU ready to pull the trigger on additional tariffs and rumours of a coordinated response from China, Japan, and South Korea following their first economic dialogue in 5 years

Bottom line: expect volatility. The headline number is likely to look scary, but remember, it’s a negotiation, and the likely outcome could be far less severe in our view.

We’re not ready to call our shot here, but having clarity on the path forward could be just what the market needs to move higher.

Our framework for navigating the trade war: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/51

Can Carney build 500K homes per year?

Through the creation of a new federal entity and $36B of capital, Carney’s plan to scale to 500K homes per year is now out in the open, and it’s polarizing.

The plan was lauded by some and criticized by those in favour of less government involvement, who point out that we’ve seen past promises for government-induced housing booms fail to be implemented effectively.

One thing’s for sure: for housing affordability to improve, supply must improve.

Should the proposal come to fruition the impact would be felt most in multi-unit and affordable housing construction, where the majority of the capital and incentives have been directed.

It would bode well for a number of Canadian names, including lumber producers, wood products manufacturers, and names with modular structure exposure.

For the full piece, click here: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/76

Canadian oil development divides voters

Oil prices have been in focus lately, with a number of headlines around geopolitical tensions and market dynamics dominating the narrative.

Trump’s tariff threats on Russian/Venezuelan oil and his threat of military action against Iran have stirred up uncertainty, while a recent 3.3M barrel crude inventory draw signalled strong demand, putting a floor under prices.

A potential rise in oil prices may not benefit the loonie though, which has decoupled from the commodity in recent years.

The development of our energy sector remains an important topic, and one where our two candidates have largely different views (a nice change of pace from the constant one-upping each other).

Should support for the continued development of the Canadian energy patch remain weak, valuations could stay under pressure, increasing the potential for U.S. companies to take a look north of the border to offset declining reserves.

Rogers leans deeper into sports media

Rogers (RCI-B) secured NHL broadcasting rights through 2038 with a 12-year, $11B extension of its existing agreement that ensures Sportsnet remains the exclusive national broadcaster of Canadian hockey.

The market didn’t love the price versus the previous 12-year, $5.2B deal, sending RCI shares down 6% on the day. While it definitely brings some sticker shock, it doesn’t make it a bad deal in our view.

Between the NHL’s recent growth, a large opportunity in streaming, and the strategic fit with Rogers soon-to-be 70% stake in MLSE after buying Bell’s 37.5% stake, there are levers Rogers can pull to make this deal worth it.

Just when we thought America was home of the insane politician twitter accounts…

• WELL Health Shares Drop as U.S. Subsidiary Investigation Delays Full-Year Filing

• CAE extends critical support of Advanced Helicopter Flight Training Support to the U.S. Army

• Lithium Americas Announce FID for Thacker Pass Phase 1 and Closes Strategic Investment

Endeavour (EDR) bought a silver mine in Peru for $145M ($80M in cash, $65M in stock).

BRP (DOO) looks to be bouncing off lows, after selling off on tariffs, potential consumer weakness, and challenging power sports market dynamics.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) was up 8% after being down 30% to start the year, after a solid technical report released on Monday.

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS

TODAY’S EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES