• Trump announces the largest tariff measures in over 100 years

• How markets are taking it, and where we go from here

• Canadian trade data highlights reversal of pre-tariff pull forward

• Job cuts are accelerating in the U.S., led by government employees

• Trump spared nobody, not even the penguins

• We’re focused on insiders, as they see the impacts before anyone else

Well, “Liberation Day” was bigger than markets had braced for… and then some.

Trump came out hot, with 10% universal tariffs on all imports and a broad range (11-50%) of reciprocal tariffs on each country in addition to that, pushing the average tariff on U.S. imports to the highest level in over 100 years.

Canada came out relatively unscathed as it was excluded from the new measures, but existing tariffs were kept as is (<5% effective tariff rate).

Regardless, Carney pushed forward with a matching 25% tariff on vehicles imported from the U.S. - let’s see if Trump reacts.

Our framework for navigating the trade war: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/51

Where do we go from here?

For those looking for more context around the new trade action taken by the Trump administration, we outline the measures and their impact in the full piece below:

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/80

Trade data highlights tariff-slowdown

Trade data came in weak yesterday, with the country-wide deficit in merchandise trade hitting $1.5B, down from a $3.1B surplus in January.

10 of 11 product categories saw a decline in exports M/M, as gains from tariff front-running reversed course.

Notably, exports of motor vehicles and parts declined nearly 9%, including a 15% drop in passenger cars and light trucks, highlighting the impact of the uncertainty tariffs have injected into our auto sector.

The next few months should bring more of the same, as U.S. exports remain elevated versus pre-tariff readings.

Federal cuts dominate challenger numbers

We highlighted at the beginning of March that the largest near-term risk to U.S. GDP growth was the gutting of government spending via the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Since then, we’ve had two massive challenger job cut prints, with yesterday’s March reading of 275K (~80% government cuts) being the 3^rd largest on record (since 1989) and the largest excluding the pandemic.

While the noise around tariffs will crowd out how this develops we’re keeping an eye on it, as there’s a lot of runway left on cuts and we think it could do more damage in the near-term than tariffs can.

Included in the 10% sweeping U.S. tariffs were the Heard and McDonald Islands - a remote, uninhabited territory in the Indian Ocean.

The islands are home to wildlife including penguins and seals, but no humans… it looks like Trump wants smoke with everybody.

We’re giving this segment a bump up in the newsletter for the next little while, as what insiders do during the coming weeks should be telling.

• MDA Space to buy Israeli satellite communication chip company SatixFy

• Stellantis pauses Windsor and Mexico auto production, lays off U.S. workers

• Poilievre Will Axe The Annual Liberal Beer Tax Increase

What a day, with a lot of red on the tape from tariff exposed names. Apparel retailers that rely on Asia for manufacturing got the worst of it, while longer duration names (utilities, telecom, etc.) saw an inflow of “risk-off” capital.

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS

Dollarama (DOL) reported a strong quarter:

• Top-line is in-line: Dollarama's revenue hit $1.4B, in-line with expectations and up 9% Y/Y, driven by 62 new store additions and strong 5.6% same store sales growth (strong demand for consumables).

• Bottom-line beat: EPS of $1.40 exceeded analyst expectations of $1.31, showing a substantial 22% increase Y/Y, while EBITDA grew 14% to $418M thanks to 29.7% margins, expanding from 28.3% last year.

• Outlook strong: It increased its equity stake in Latin American retailer Dollarcity to 60% (up 10%), expanded into Mexico, and raised Dollarcity's long-term store target from 850 stores by 2029 to 1,050 by 2031.

TODAY’S EARNINGS

Thankfully, nothing on the schedule today… we all have enough to worry about as is.

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

It was a volatile day in commodities, with crude oil losing 7% from the combination of expected tariff impacts and an OPEC+ production boost. Lumber lost nearly 10%, as expectations for additional tariffs were not realized in this round of measures.