• Trade progress being made… not with China though

• We dissect the continued market sell-off

• Shopify sets the precedent for AI adoption, what it means for job markets

• An update on Ackman’s Howard Lutnick accusations

• We’re starting to see some insider buying

• Oil producers continue to sell off with the underlying commodity

Negotiations to reduce the impact of U.S. tariffs are underway, with Trump prioritizing talks with allies like Japan and South Korea, and giving us another classic soundbite.

The China situation has further deteriorated though, with the U.S. raising the overall tariff on Chinese imports to 104% and China threatening retaliation.

With U.S. reporting season around the corner, we’re about to get a better sense of the near-term impact of this dispute.

Analysts have been trimming forecasts since the beginning of the year, but revision cycles tend to be gradual in nature, so we’re not convinced we’re done yet .

We’re watching out for pharmaceutical tariffs next, as Trump hinted something could be coming on this front soon.

A bird’s eye view of the 4th worst market YTD

It feels crazy to even write that title… but it’s true. The pandemic and the great depression are the only periods on record that gave us a worse start to the year.

If you have an affinity for pain, we did some work yesterday to map out the impact of the recent volatility across asset classes… check it out!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/85

SHOP’s AI mandate to drive revenue per head

CEO Tobi Lutke issued an internal memo outlining SHOP’s aggressive adoption of AI, writing that use of the technology is now a “baseline expectation” and a barrier to resource allocation (ie. prove AI can’t do this job if you want to hire for it).

For Shopify, it’s business as usual - AI can and should streamline operations, improve FCF conversion, and open up new revenue opportunities. But it could have a negative medium-term impact on labour markets, especially in the IT sector.

The share of software-related degrees has more than doubled since 2010, reflecting a surge in popularity of the profession.

Assuming other companies follow suit, the job market for the ~40K graduates per year will be even more challenging.

We pointed out Bill Ackman’s callout of Lutnick’s incentive alignment as a “wait and see” story, given Bill’s Nike position is currently getting smoked by tariffs…

It didn’t take long to get an update, here’s the timeline:

Poetic.

Flagging the ECN Capital buy here - they’re a specialty credit business with some interesting exposure to manufactured housing, RV, and marine… maybe some affordability tailwinds here?

• Stephen Harper says Canada’s problems not created by Trump as he endorses Pierre Poilievre

• Trump expected to sign order to allow coal-fired power plants to remain open

• Keystone crude oil pipeline shut after leak

Energy names took it on the chin again, with WTI crude breaking below $60 for the first time since the pandemic. Sustained low prices should start to pressure the producers as this RBC chart from late last year highlights. Dividend cuts coming? 

YESTERDAY’S EARNINGS

TODAY’S EARNINGS

YESTERDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES