Flagging the USD sell-off, which is giving some support to the loonie. Should it continue, we’ll dive into company-level revenue exposure to a rising CAD.

• Tariff confusion continues, but market likes the latest update

• Treasuries and gold are flashing warning signals

• U.S. bank results: read-throughs for Canadian lenders

• Which TSX 60 company insiders are buying stock?

• The CEO of Ryanair is a savage

• Gold prices are ripping and producer stocks are catching up

The confusion on trade over the weekend has led to a new rule at Bullpen: don’t start writing about the trade war until late at night.

What started with a retroactive exemption of tariffs on electronics quickly turned into conflicting headline after headline, before being cleared up by the man himself:

Trump highlighted more tariffs on the category could come following a national security review, but exposed names are trading higher pre-market regardless.

Our anchor through the uncertainty remains - China exposure isn’t just in electronics, and the Trump administration is financially incentivized to figure this out.

Treasuries & gold flash warning signals

The US 10Y is flirting with 4.5%, though it isn’t the absolute figure that matters but the pace of change, which has been rapid - up nearly 50 bps last week.

Such volatility in rates drives corporate uncertainty, slowing down deal processes, growth investment, and ultimately economic activity.

While we can’t confirm the rumours of China/Japan fire selling treasuries, or the view that this bond market activity caused Trump to reverse course on tariffs, one thing seems clear: markets are on shaky foundations right now.

U.S. bank results: a sign of things to come

To close out last week we highlighted the U.S. banks should report strong trading activity. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley confirmed this view, reporting record equities trading revenue (45%+ Y/Y).

While it shouldn’t be long-lived, a strong trading backdrop should favour some Canadian banks more than others.

The U.S. banks continued to take additional provisions to buffer against economic weakness, as companies pause growth investment.

We’ll see if the Canadian lenders follow suit, after taking additional provisions in Q1.

Which insiders are buying in 2025?

We’ve been digging through filings to figure out which of Canada’s largest companies have seen insider buying this year. Check out the full piece below, and watch for our insider selling report this week!

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: www.bullpen.finance/content/91 

We missed this earnings call sound bite from Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary, but it’s too funny to not share:

With European air travel to the U.S. falling off a cliff (a trend we talked about recently), Ryanair could pick up some of the demand shift, and Michael might be in a better mood.

• Hundreds of workers laid off at Ingersoll assembly plant as GM halts production

• SNDL Announces Listing on the CSE

• Rory McIlroy wins Masters playoff to complete the career Grand Slam

Gold names keep ripping higher, making the economics of producers even more attractive than when we first wrote they have more upside if gold prices hold.

FRIDAY’S EARNINGS

MTY Food Group posted solid Q1’25 results:

• Top-line: Revenue of $285M beat the street’s $276M and was up 2% Y/Y despite weather disruptions, driven by strong digital sales growth (+7%).

• Bottom-line: Adjusted EPS of $0.87 beat estimates of $0.84 and jumped from $0.69 in the prior year, though net income dropped to $1.7M due to FX.

• Other: MTY repurchased 287K shares for ~$14M during the quarter and expects restaurant openings to accelerate in Q2 and Q3.

TODAY’S EARNINGS

FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES