• A trade resolution could take a while, we’re watching trucking

• Liberal spending plan gets put under the microscope

• Regulators are pushing for a more competitive Canadian market

• The Parkland drama continues as CEO announces departure

• VersaBank up big on the back of a number of positive developments

• Fed manufacturing index posts 3^rd biggest drop on record

• Gold sees record inflows

To close out last week Trump talked up progress on trade tensions with China, which remains the key risk to a sustained market recovery and resumption in global trade.

While the U.S. administration is signalling a near-term resolution is possible…

… the historical data would signal the dispute could last longer, as structuring new trade deals is far from linear.

We’re watching U.S. heavy truck sales closely, as they’ve historically been a strong indicator of demand deterioration and have started to show some weakness lately.

Liberals release a polarizing costing plan

Over the weekend, the liberal government released its 4-year spending plan, which has drawn criticism from industry.

The plan includes $130B of new spending (including $30B for defense), but re-allocates that spend to be heavier weighted towards capital investment.

In theory, that capital investment should drive productivity gains…

… which we’ll need in spades if we’re to pay for the increased deficit projections compared to Trudeau’s liberal government.

While many have voiced their displeasure with Carney’s plan, we’ll wait for the conservative spending plan to drop, so we can compare them side-by-side.

Canada wants more competitive markets

Never thought we’d say this… but hat tip to the regulators!

The CSA capped off last week by announcing critical measures to reduce the time, cost, and regulatory burden of going public in Canada.

The new measures include:

1. Companies going public will only have to file 2 years of financials (was 3)

2. New issuers can more easily raise additional capital within a year of IPO

3. Some investors will get increased IPO limits and favourable treatment on reinvestment

Combined with efforts to reduce naked short-selling by CIRO, regulators are taking the necessary steps to bring both capital and companies back to our markets.

PKI CEO gets the boot as activism grows

Last week Parkland (PKI) decided to throw out the kitchen sink, pre-releasing a bad Q1, pointing to the low-end of its full-year EBITDA guide, and announcing CEO Bob Espey would be stepping down by year-end at the latest.

Simpson oil (20% owner) wasn’t buying it, doubling down on their activist campaign aimed at overhauling the entire board.

We think the table is set for a take-private here, as Espey’s 2 years of annual compensation (~$12M) in a change of control event now has a shot clock. We wrote about that and more earlier in March, for those new to the story:

If the above link doesn’t work, try this: https://www.bullpen.finance/content/54

Should the conservatives release their spending plan soon, we’ll be able to compare the two parties by the numbers, rather than the headlines…

… with one week left to go before the next 4 years are decided, we hope you’re stocked up on Advil.

• Pierre Poilievre promises to slash government consultant spending to pre-Liberal levels

• “Very good progress” reported in high-stakes U.S. talks with Iran

• “A different feel”: Why these Maple Leafs are poised for a run (seriously)

Flagging VersaBank (VBNK) here, which was up big on a press release highlighting better-than-expected growth in the U.S., increasing net interest margins, and the addition of BMO Nesbitt Burns to its deposit broker network.

THURSDAY’S EARNINGS

TODAY’S EARNINGS

No notable companies reporting today, but watch out for tomorrow where we get results out of Tesla, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon among others.

THURSDAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

Flagging the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, which has only had a bigger one month drop during 2008 and the pandemic.

TODAY’S ECONOMIC RELEASES

Flagging gold again which is attracting record inflows, as investors continue to seek shelter from ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

As Trump said last night…